The hottest typhoon ravaged the steel price, and G

2022-08-05
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Since September, with the help of small blast furnace production accidents at Benxi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Xinxing Cast Pipe Co., Ltd. and Liuzhou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., the price of construction steel in Guangdong has made a good start in golden September. With the continuous correction of the futures market and the fact that northern materials are concentrated southward this month and the demand is lower than expected, does it mean that the steel market is not booming in the peak season? The following is a brief analysis of the recent market situation

in terms of price, as of the 17th, the sales price including tax (weighing) of Xianggang deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market was 4590 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of Zhongtian threaded steel bar in Shanghai was 4100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of Chenggang in Beijing was 4030 yuan/ton. Excluding the pound difference and freight, it is roughly estimated that the current price difference between Guangdong market and Shanghai and Beijing is yuan/ton, which has expanded by yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. The price difference between Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong continues to widen compared with the previous month. Due to the sharp rise in steel prices in August, the overall price focus in the South moved upward, while the prices in the north and East China were relatively small under the condition that the demand was difficult to follow up

in September, affected by the production accidents of several steel mills at the beginning of the month, the spot price rose. However, when the demand was difficult to follow up, the price fell back. However, the price in South China did not fall significantly due to two typhoons. One of the main reasons for the strong price was the shortage of resources. Therefore, the steel price in Guangdong has not decreased with that in East China and North China recently, but has the potential to continue to expand, which also lays a certain foundation for the southward movement of northern materials

in terms of inventory, according to the same caliber statistics of Guangzhou building materials warehouse on the 8th of this year, the total inventory of construction steel in Guangzhou was 461000 tons, an increase of 47100 tons over the previous week, an increase of 11.38%; A month on month decrease of 33800 tons, or 6.83%. After the inventory fell to the annual low of 413900 tons at the end of last month, the inventory increased significantly last week, and Beicai moved south ahead of schedule; At the same time, it is understood that in September, the total amount of northeast timber going south was 430000 tons, an increase of 190000 tons compared with the previous month, and nearly 300000 tons were shipped to Guangdong this month. Therefore, it is expected that the inventory will continue to rise this week

in addition, according to my data, the willingness of major steel mills outside the province to deliver goods increased in September. With the addition of surrounding resources, the planned delivery volume in September was 745000 tons, an increase of 225000 tons compared with August, an increase of 43.27%. Affected by the typhoon in the middle and late August, the arrival of some resources will be postponed to September, so the arrival volume in Guangdong will increase significantly in the middle and late September. After the withdrawal of medium frequency furnace and the recovery of electric furnace, Guangdong still has a monthly resource gap of 550000 tons. Therefore, with the arrival of a large number of resources outside the province in the middle and late ten days, the local supply pressure is obvious, and the price may be difficult to support the impact of low-cost resources

as for the steel plant, when the typhoon passed through Guangzhou in late August, Zhuhai Yuegang plant suffered a great impact, cut off water and power, and most of the plant production was abnormal. However, after the typhoon, the steel plant actively took emergency measures, and then gradually resumed production at the end of the month. At present, the production is normal; In terms of Shaoguan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., due to the poor production of a blast furnace recently, one line may be shut down. It is not yet clear that the bar line has been shut down. The scientific and technological innovation in China's high molecular material industry is booming. The wire production line is the steel plant. The steel plant enters the maintenance and shutdown, and the output release will be restrained to a certain extent. The pressure on the supply end of the local leading steel plant is not large

however, among China's food packaging materials, the electric furnace plants that were originally expected to recover at the beginning of the third quarter are not expected to recover. Recently, there are rumors in the market that on the other hand, the electric furnace plants may gradually resume production in the middle and late September. However, the author roughly estimates that even if the resources of the electric furnace plants are restored, the impact in the current period will be small. However, with the gradual resumption of production of most small factories, the pressure on the supply side in the later period will not be underestimated

in terms of environmental protection, as far as I know, whether it is the action plan for comprehensive control of air pollution in autumn and winter in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas issued by the Ministry of environmental protection in conjunction with other ministries and commissions and six provinces (municipalities directly under the central government), or the 11th round of intensified supervision since September 1, or the 24th supervision team of the safety committee of the State Council to carry out comprehensive supervision of work safety in Hainan, etc. The market thinks that the environmental protection production restriction is good for the market, and the production restriction is bad for raw materials, and then bad for the spot. Therefore, it is still difficult to predict the long and short positions in the environmental protection supervision. It is necessary to observe the enforcement strength and periodicity of the law enforcement departments in the final period of the supervision

to sum up, although the steel price in Guangdong Province got off to a good start under the influence of the blast furnace explosion of Benxi Iron and Steel Co. in early September, with the impact of the concentrated arrival of low-cost resources from other provinces such as the north and East China on the local spot market in the middle and late September, the inventory level may gradually rise, coupled with the gradual resumption of production of electric furnace plants and other adverse factors, it is expected that the high price drop of construction steel in Guangdong Province in late September is a high probability event

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